Abstract
Objective
Design
Setting and Participants
Methods
Results
Conclusions and Implications
Keywords
Methods
Data Sources
For CMS PBJ data, see https://www.cms.gov/medicare/quality-initiatives-patient-assessment-instruments/nursinghomequalityinits/staffing-data-submission-pbj. For CMS NH characteristics and quality ratings see March 1, 2022 data at https://data.cms.gov/provider-data/dataset/4pq5-n9py. For NH COVID-19 data see. Accessed April 5, 2022. https://data.cms.gov/stories/s/COVID-19-Nursing-Home-Data/bkwz-xpvg. NH community data are from the EIG Distressed Communities Index. See https://eig.org/dci
Statistical Analysis
Results


Characteristics | States with No Vaccine Mandate (n = 10,860) | States with Vaccine Mandate (n = 4171) | Test for Differences | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | (SD) | Mean | (SD) | P Value | |
Percent of staff COVID-19 vaccinated | |||||
As of January 16, 2022 | 81.3 | 14.6 | 94.0 | 9.1 | <.001 |
As of March 20, 2022 | 85.5 | 12.7 | 94.9 | 7.9 | <.001 |
As of October 23, 2022 | 84.9 | 13.6 | 94.5 | 9.6 | <.001 |
% of residents COVID-19 vaccinated | |||||
As of January 16, 2022 | 88.1 | 10.3 | 91.6 | 8.1 | <.001 |
As of March 20, 2022 | 88.4 | 9.6 | 91.7 | 7.9 | <.001 |
As of October 23, 2022 | 86.8 | 11.8 | 90.5 | 10.3 | <.001 |
Number of nurse aide hours PRPD | |||||
Pre-US Supreme Court decision | 2.27 | 0.62 | 2.30 | 0.63 | <.001 |
Precompliance | 2.27 | 0.63 | 2.35 | 0.64 | <.001 |
Postcompliance | 2.29 | 0.63 | 2.36 | 0.62 | <.001 |
Number of licensed nurse hours PRPD | |||||
Pre-US Supreme Court decision | 1.73 | 0.62 | 1.80 | 0.74 | <.001 |
Precompliance | 1.75 | 0.63 | 1.83 | 0.73 | <.001 |
Postcompliance | 1.72 | 0.61 | 1.80 | 0.74 | <.001 |
Facility characteristics | |||||
Number of staff COVID-19 and flu cases for wk | 0.88 | 2.2 | 1.06 | 2.6 | <.001 |
Overall 5-star rating | 3.07 | 1.4 | 3.29 | 1.39 | <.001 |
Number of beds | 101 | 50.5 | 128 | 83.4 | <.001 |
Percent occupancy | 0.74 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 0.19 | <.001 |
Not-for-profit | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.23 | 0.42 | .07 |
Government | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.18 | <.001 |
Hospital-based | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.20 | .04 |
Medicare only | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.18 | .43 |
Medicaid only | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.14 | .02 |
Community characteristics | |||||
Rural | 0.21 | 0.41 | 0.05 | 0.21 | <.001 |
Small town | 0.29 | 0.45 | 0.16 | 0.37 | <.001 |
Suburban or urban | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.40 | <.001 |
Percent of white, non-Hispanic residents | 72.3 | 23.6 | 63.9 | 26.9 | <.001 |
Percent of adults w/no high school diploma | 11.8 | 7.0 | 11.9 | 8.4 | .68 |
Median income ratio | 96.1 | 28.1 | 101.8 | 35.0 | <.001 |
Variable Definitions: | |||||
Time Periods | |||||
Pre-US Supreme Court decision (15-wk period) | = | 1 for wk ended 10/8/21 through 1/14/22, 0 otherwise. | |||
Precompliance (9-wk period) | = | 1 for wk ended 1/21/22 through 3/18/22, 0 otherwise. | |||
Postcompliance (15-wk period) | = | 1 for wk ended 3/25/22 through 7/1/22, 0 otherwise. | |||
Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's, and Memorial Day wk | = | 1 for wk, which includes the holiday indicated, 0 otherwise. | |||
Staffing variables | |||||
Number of nurse aide h PRPD | = | Total number of PBJ h reported by CNAs, nurse aides in training and med aides/technicians, for 5-d work wk (Mon-Fri), divided by sum of daily census for 5-d work wk. | |||
Number of licensed nurse h PRPD | = | Total number of PBJ h reported by RNs and LPNs for 5-d work wk (Mon-Fri), divided by sum of daily census for 5-d work wk. | |||
Vaccination and COVID-19 data | |||||
Percent of staff vaccinated | = | Percent of NH staff vaccinated with at least 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine as of end of wk. | |||
Percent of residents vaccinated | = | Percent of NH residents vaccinated with at least 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine as of end of wk. | |||
Number of staff COVID-19 and flu cases for wk | = | Number of staff and facility personnel reporting COVID-19, influenza (flu), and/or other acute respiratory illness for that wk. | |||
Facility characteristics | |||||
Overall 5-star rating | = | 1 to 5 based on NH's overall 5-star rating | |||
Number of beds | = | Number of beds in NH | |||
Percent occupancy | = | Number of NH residents divided by number of beds | |||
Not-for-profit | = | 1 if NH is a nonprofit, 0 otherwise | |||
Government | = | 1 if NH is government-owned, 0 otherwise | |||
Hospital-based | = | 1 if NH is hospital-based, 0 otherwise | |||
Medicare only | = | 1 if NH is Medicare only, 0 otherwise | |||
Medicaid only | = | 1 if NH is Medicaid only, 0 otherwise | |||
Community characteristics | |||||
Rural | = | 1 if a NH is located in a rural area; 0 otherwise. | |||
Small town | = | 1 if a NH is located in a small town; 0 otherwise. | |||
Suburban or urban | = | 1 if a NH is located in an urban or suburban area; 0 otherwise. | |||
Percent of white, non-Hispanic residents | = | Percent of population in a NH's community (zip code) who is white, non-Hispanic. | |||
Percent adults w/no high school diploma | = | Percent of the 25 + population in a NH's community (zip code) without a high school diploma or the equivalent. | |||
Median income ratio | = | Median household income of NH's community (zip code) as a percent of the state's median household income. |
A, Number of Nurse Aide Hours per Resident per Day | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
States with No Vaccine Mandate | ||||||
Nursing Home Fixed Effects | State Fixed Effects | |||||
Coefficient | 95% CI | P Value | Coefficient | 95% CI | P Value | |
Time periods | ||||||
Pre-US Supreme Court decision | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Precompliance | −0.0067 | −0.009, −0.004 | <.001 | 0.0035 | −0.001, 0.009 | .17 |
Postcompliance | 0.0175 | 0.015, 0.020 | <.001 | 0.0413 | 0.037, 0.046 | <.001 |
Thanksgiving wk | −0.0328 | −0.039, −0.027 | <.001 | −0.0273 | −0.039, −0.016 | <.001 |
Christmas wk | −0.0124 | −0.018, −0.006 | <.001 | 0.0073 | −0.004, 0.019 | .22 |
New Year's wk | −0.0761 | −0.082, −0.070 | <.001 | −0.0572 | −0.069, −0.046 | <.001 |
Memorial Day wk | −0.0056 | −0.011, 0.000 | .06 | −0.006 | −0.017, 0.005 | .28 |
Facility characteristics: | ||||||
Percent of staff vaccinated | −0.0022 | −0.002, −0.002 | <.001 | |||
Percent of residents COVID-19 vaccinated | 0.0063 | 0.006, 0.007 | <.001 | |||
Number of staff COVID and flu cases per wk | 0.0105 | 0.010, 0.011 | <.001 | |||
Overall 5-star rating | 0.0458 | 0.044, 0.047 | <.001 | |||
Log (number of beds) | −0.0962 | −0.101, −0.092 | <.001 | |||
Percent occupancy | −0.0143 | −0.016, −0.012 | <.001 | |||
Not-for-profit | 0.2787 | 0.274, 0.283 | <.001 | |||
Government | 0.3481 | 0.341, 0.355 | <.001 | |||
Hospital-based | 0.0911 | 0.081, 0.102 | <.001 | |||
Medicare only | 0.3700 | 0.360, 0.380 | <.001 | |||
Medicaid only | 0.2919 | 0.275, 0.309 | <.001 | |||
Community characteristics: | ||||||
Rural | −0.0476 | −0.054, −0.041 | <.001 | |||
Small town | −0.0089 | −0.014, −0.004 | <.001 | |||
Percent of white, non-Hispanic residents | −0.0015 | −0.002, −0.001 | <.001 | |||
Percent of adult population w/no high school diploma | −0.0016 | −0.002, −0.001 | <.001 | |||
Median income ratio | 0.0006 | 0.001, 0.001 | <.001 | |||
R2 | 0.790 | 0.257 | ||||
Number of nursing home wk | 400,954 | 361,720 | ||||
States with Vaccine Mandate | ||||||
Nursing Home Fixed Effects | State Fixed Effects | |||||
Coefficient | 95% CI | P Value | Coefficient | 95% CI | P Value | |
Time periods | ||||||
Pre-US Supreme Court decision | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Precompliance | 0.0372 | 0.034, 0.041 | <.001 | 0.0480 | 0.040, 0.056 | <.001 |
Postcompliance | 0.0461 | 0.043, 0.049 | <.001 | 0.0767 | 0.069, 0.084 | <.001 |
Thanksgiving wk | −0.0192 | −0.028, −0.010 | <.001 | −0.0136 | −0.033, 0.006 | .17 |
Christmas wk | −0.0128 | −0.022, −0.004 | .005 | −0.0040 | −0.024, 0.015 | .68 |
New Year's wk | −0.0954 | −0.104, −0.086 | <.001 | −0.0887 | −0.108, −0.069 | <.001 |
Memorial Day wk | 0.0043 | −0.004, 0.013 | .32 | −0.0013 | −0.020, 0.017 | .89 |
Facility characteristics: | ||||||
Percent of staff vaccinated | −0.0040 | −0.004, −0.004 | <.001 | |||
Percent of residents COVID-19 vaccinated | −0.0000 | −0.000, 0.000 | .99 | |||
Number of staff COVID and flu cases per wk | 0.0064 | 0.005, 0.008 | <.001 | |||
Overall 5-star rating | 0.0702 | 0.069, 0.073 | <.001 | |||
Log (number of beds) | −0.1900 | −0.196, −0.184 | <.001 | |||
Percent occupancy | −0.5034 | −0.521, −0.485 | <.001 | |||
Not-for-profit | 0.2906 | 0.283, 0.298 | <.001 | |||
Government | 0.5255 | 0.507, 0.544 | <.001 | |||
Hospital-based | 0.0738 | 0.057, 0.090 | <.001 | |||
Medicare only | 0.2510 | 0.233, 0.269 | <.001 | |||
Medicaid only | −0.0021 | −0.026, 0.022 | .87 | |||
Community characteristics | ||||||
Rural | −0.0966 | −0.111, −0.082 | <.001 | |||
Small town | −0.0148 | −0.024, −0.005 | .002 | |||
Percent white, non-Hispanic residents | −0.0027 | −0.003, −0.002 | <.001 | |||
Percent of adult population w/no high school diploma | −0.0024 | −0.003, −0.002 | <.001 | |||
Median income ratio | 0.0012 | 0.001, 0.001 | <.001 | |||
R2 | 0.826 | 0.411 | ||||
Number of nursing home wk | 153,937 | 111,901 | ||||
(B) Number of Licensed Nurse Hours per Resident per day | ||||||
States with No Vaccine Mandate | ||||||
Nursing Home Fixed Effects | State Fixed Effects | |||||
Coefficient | 95% CI | P Value | Coefficient | 95% CI | P Value | |
Time periods | ||||||
Pre-US Supreme Court decision | Ref. | Ref. | ||||
Precompliance | −0.0109 | −0.013, −0.009 | <.001 | −0.0258 | −0.030, −0.021 | <.001 |
Postcompliance | −0.0302 | −0.032, −0.028 | <.001 | −0.0368 | −0.041, −0.033 | <.001 |
Thanksgiving wk | −0.1255 | −0.130, −0.121 | <.001 | −0.1121 | −0.123, −0.101 | <.001 |
Christmas wk | −0.0961 | −0.101, −0.091 | <.001 | −0.0932 | −0.104, −0.082 | <.001 |
New Year's wk | −0.1179 | −0.123, −0.113 | <.001 | −0.1145 | −0.125, −0.104 | <.001 |
Memorial Day wk | −0.0626 | −0.067, −0.058 | <.001 | −0.0604 | −0.071, −0.050 | <.001 |
Facility characteristics: | ||||||
Percent of staff vaccinated | 0.0012 | 0.001, 0.001 | <.001 | |||
Percent residents COVID-19 vaccinated | −0.0035 | −0.004, −0.003 | <.001 | |||
Number of staff COVID and flu cases per wk | 0.0088 | 0.008, 0.010 | <.001 | |||
Overall 5-star rating | 0.0633 | 0.062, 0.065 | <.001 | |||
Log (number of beds) | −0.2703 | −0.274, −0.266 | <.001 | |||
Percent occupancy | −0.0428 | −0.045, −0.041 | <.001 | |||
Not-for-profit | 0.1366 | 0.132, 0.141 | <.001 | |||
Government | 0.1524 | 0.146, 0.159 | <.001 | |||
Hospital-based | 0.5427 | 0.533, 0.552 | <.001 | |||
Medicare only | 0.8196 | 0.810, 0.829 | <.001 | |||
Medicaid only | −0.0240 | −0.040, −0.008 | .003 | |||
Community characteristics: | ||||||
Rural | −0.1881 | −0.194, −0.182 | <.001 | |||
Small town | −0.0818 | −0.086, −0.077 | <.001 | |||
Percent white, non-Hispanic residents | −0.0004 | −0.001, −0.000 | <.001 | |||
Percent adult population w/no high school diploma | −0.0040 | −0.004, −0.004 | <.001 | |||
Median income ratio | 0.0002 | 0.000, 0.000 | <.001 | |||
R2 | 0.859 | 0.355 | ||||
Number of nursing home wk | 384,131 | 346,141 | ||||
States with Vaccine Mandate | ||||||
Nursing Home Fixed Effects | State Fixed Effects | |||||
Coefficient | 95% CI | P Value | Coefficient | 95% CI | P Value | |
Time Periods | ||||||
Pre-U.S. Supreme Court decision | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Pre-compliance | 0.0108 | 0.007, 0.014 | <.001 | −0.0126 | −0.022, −0.003 | .009 |
Post-compliance | −0.0157 | −0.019, −0.013 | <.001 | −0.0066 | −0.015, 0.002 | .12 |
Thanksgiving wk | −0.1157 | −0.124, −0.108 | <.001 | −0.1027 | −0.125, −0.080 | <.001 |
Christmas wk | −0.0914 | −0.099, −0.083 | <.001 | −0.0884 | −0.111, −0.066 | <.001 |
New Year's wk | −0.1228 | −0.131, −0.115 | <.001 | −0.1312 | −0.154, −0.109 | <.001 |
Memorial Day wk | −0.0633 | −0.071, −0.056 | <.001 | −0.0674 | −0.089, −0.046 | <.001 |
Facility characteristics | ||||||
Percent of staff vaccinated | 0.0038 | 0.003, 0.004 | <.001 | |||
Percent of residents COVID-19 vaccinated | −0.0150 | −0.015, −0.014 | <.001 | |||
Number of staff COVID and flu cases per wk | 0.0111 | 0.010, 0.012 | <.001 | |||
Overall 5-star rating | 0.0711 | 0.068, 0.074 | <.001 | |||
Log (number of beds) | −0.4417 | −0.449, −0.435 | <.001 | |||
Percent occupancy | −0.9033 | −0.924, −0.883 | <.001 | |||
Not-for-profit | 0.1719 | 0.163, 0.180 | <.001 | |||
Government | 0.3623 | 0.342, 0.382 | <.001 | |||
Hospital-based | 1.0893 | 1.071, 1.107 | <.001 | |||
Medicare only | 0.6217 | 0.602, 0.641 | <.001 | |||
Medicaid only | 0.0088 | −0.023, 0.041 | .59 | |||
Community characteristics | ||||||
Rural | −0.3092 | −0.326, −0.292 | <.001 | |||
Small town | −0.1715 | −0.182, −0.161 | <.001 | |||
Percent white, non-Hispanic residents | −0.0010 | −0.001, −0.001 | <.001 | |||
Percent adult population w/no high school diploma | −0.0035 | −0.004, −0.003 | <.001 | |||
Median income ratio | 0.0016 | 0.001, 0.002 | <.001 | |||
R2 | 0.900 | 0.472 | ||||
Number of nursing home wk | 147,501 | 106,383 |
Discussion
McGarry BE, Gandhi AD, Syme M. Association of state COVID-19 vaccine mandates with staff vaccination coverage and staffing Shortages in US nursing homes. JAMA Health Forum. 2022;3:e222363. This study reports no significant increases in self-reported staffing shortages following announcements of statelevel vaccine mandates. In untabulated analyses, we found no evidence that self-reported staffing shortages changed significantly following the Supreme Court's vaccine mandate ruling (through March 2022). Nevertheless, 22 Attorneys General have petitioned CMS to repeal the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, in part because it intensifies NH staffing shortages. Congressional negotiators recently agreed to repeal the COVID-19 vaccine mandate for military service members. See https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/22-statesask-cms-to-withdraw-healthcare-worker-vaccine-mandate.html and https://www.wsj.com/articles/lawmakers-spar-over-marijuana-energy-permits-indefense-bill-talks-11670355641?mod=djemalertNEWS
Conclusions and Implications
References
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.https://data.cms.gov/covid-19/covid-19-nursing-home-dataDate accessed: December 3, 2022
- Quantifying risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection among nursing home workers for the 2020-2021 winter surge of the COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia, USA.J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2022; 23: 942-946
- How the Supreme Court’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate rulings could shape the pandemic’s next phase.JAMA. 2022; 327: 706-708https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.0791
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.https://www.cms.gov/files/document/cms-omnibus-covid-19-health-care-staff-vaccination-requirements-2021.pdfDate: 2022Date accessed: April 28, 2022
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
- National academies report calls for substantial reforms for US nursing homes.JAMA Health Forum. 2022; 3: e221415
- “Somebody like me”: Understanding COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among staff in skilled nursing facilities.J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2021; 22: 1133-1137
- COVID-19 vaccine uptake among residents and staff members of assisted living and residential care communities—Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care Program, December 2020-April 2021.J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2021; 22: 2016-2020
For CMS PBJ data, see https://www.cms.gov/medicare/quality-initiatives-patient-assessment-instruments/nursinghomequalityinits/staffing-data-submission-pbj. For CMS NH characteristics and quality ratings see March 1, 2022 data at https://data.cms.gov/provider-data/dataset/4pq5-n9py. For NH COVID-19 data see. Accessed April 5, 2022. https://data.cms.gov/stories/s/COVID-19-Nursing-Home-Data/bkwz-xpvg. NH community data are from the EIG Distressed Communities Index. See https://eig.org/dci
McGarry BE, Gandhi AD, Syme M. Association of state COVID-19 vaccine mandates with staff vaccination coverage and staffing Shortages in US nursing homes. JAMA Health Forum. 2022;3:e222363. This study reports no significant increases in self-reported staffing shortages following announcements of statelevel vaccine mandates. In untabulated analyses, we found no evidence that self-reported staffing shortages changed significantly following the Supreme Court's vaccine mandate ruling (through March 2022). Nevertheless, 22 Attorneys General have petitioned CMS to repeal the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, in part because it intensifies NH staffing shortages. Congressional negotiators recently agreed to repeal the COVID-19 vaccine mandate for military service members. See https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/22-statesask-cms-to-withdraw-healthcare-worker-vaccine-mandate.html and https://www.wsj.com/articles/lawmakers-spar-over-marijuana-energy-permits-indefense-bill-talks-11670355641?mod=djemalertNEWS
- COVID-19 vaccine uptake and factors affecting hesitancy among US nurses, March–June 2021.Am J Public Health. 2022; 112: 1620-1629
- Getting the message right: Nurses and vaccine hesitancy.Am J Public Health. 2022; 112: 1576-1578
Article info
Publication history
Publication stage
In Press Uncorrected ProofFootnotes
Funding sources: This research did not receive any funding from agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.